As the United States prepares for a second term under Donald Trump, the political landscape of South Asia is poised for significant shifts. Trump’s foreign policy approach during his first term was marked by unpredictability, a focus on bilateral deals, and a transactional style of diplomacy. A second term is likely to amplify these tendencies, with far-reaching implications for South Asia—a region already grappling with geopolitical rivalries, economic challenges, and internal instability. Here’s an analysis of the potential implications:
1. US-China Rivalry and Its Impact on South Asia
Trump’s first term was defined by a hardline stance against China, including trade wars, sanctions, and efforts to counter Beijing’s influence globally. In a second term, this rivalry is expected to intensify, with South Asia becoming a key battleground.
- China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Trump’s administration may increase pressure on South Asian countries to avoid Chinese infrastructure projects, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This could strain relations with Pakistan, a close ally of China, while pushing India closer to the US.
- India’s Role: India, already a strategic partner of the US, may see enhanced cooperation in defense, technology, and trade. However, New Delhi will need to balance its ties with Washington and Moscow, especially given its historical reliance on Russian military equipment.
2. Afghanistan and the Taliban Factor
Trump’s first term saw the US-Taliban peace deal, which paved the way for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. A second term could see a continuation of this policy, with significant implications for regional security.
- Regional Instability: A complete US withdrawal could lead to a power vacuum, emboldening the Taliban and other extremist groups. This would have spillover effects on Pakistan, India, and Central Asia.
- Counterterrorism Concerns: The US may reduce its counterterrorism footprint in the region, forcing South Asian nations to take greater responsibility for combating terrorism. This could lead to increased tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan.
3. US-Pakistan Relations: A Rocky Road
Trump’s first term was marked by strained relations with Pakistan, as he accused Islamabad of harboring terrorists and suspended military aid. A second term could see further deterioration in ties.
- Economic Pressure: The US may impose additional sanctions or conditions on Pakistan, particularly if it continues to align closely with China.
- Impact on India-Pakistan Relations: A tougher US stance on Pakistan could embolden India to take a more assertive approach in Kashmir, potentially escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
4. Economic Implications for South Asia
Trump’s “America First” policy has often translated into protectionist measures, which could have mixed effects on South Asia.
- Trade and Investment: Countries like India and Bangladesh, which have strong trade ties with the US, may face challenges if Trump imposes tariffs or restricts market access. However, US companies seeking to diversify supply chains away from China could invest more in South Asia.
- Remittances: South Asia relies heavily on remittances from the US. Changes in immigration policies or economic conditions in the US could impact the flow of remittances, affecting millions of families in the region.
5. Climate Change and Environmental Policies
Trump’s skepticism toward climate change and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could have dire consequences for South Asia, one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world.
- Lack of US Leadership: Without US support, global efforts to combat climate change may weaken, leaving South Asia to face the brunt of rising sea levels, extreme weather, and glacial melt.
- Regional Cooperation: South Asian nations may need to strengthen regional initiatives, such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), to address environmental challenges collectively.
6. Democracy and Human Rights
Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy often sidelines issues of democracy and human rights. This could have implications for South Asia, where democratic institutions are still evolving.
- Authoritarian Tendencies: Leaders in the region may feel emboldened to suppress dissent or undermine democratic norms, knowing that the US is unlikely to prioritize these issues.
- Civil Society Impact: Reduced US funding for democracy promotion and human rights initiatives could weaken civil society organizations in the region.
7. Strategic Partnerships and Alliances
A second Trump term could reshape alliances in South Asia, with the US seeking to build a coalition to counter China’s influence.
- Quad Alliance: The Quad (US, India, Japan, and Australia) is likely to gain prominence as a counterbalance to China. India’s role in this alliance will be crucial, but it may also face pressure to align more closely with US interests.
- Russia’s Role: Russia’s growing ties with China and its historical influence in South Asia could complicate US efforts to build a cohesive regional strategy.
Conclusion: A Region at a Crossroads
A second Trump term presents both challenges and opportunities for South Asia. While the region could benefit from increased US investment and strategic partnerships, it also faces the risk of heightened geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and environmental neglect.
South Asian nations will need to navigate this complex landscape with caution, balancing their relationships with major powers while addressing internal challenges. Regional cooperation, particularly through platforms like SAARC and BIMSTEC, will be more important than ever in ensuring stability and prosperity.
As the world watches the unfolding of Trump’s second term, South Asia stands at a crossroads, with its future deeply intertwined with the decisions made in Washington, DC.
Sunil Dahal is a political analyst specializing in South Asian geopolitics and international relations. He is a freelance writer in Washington D.C.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on projected scenarios and historical trends and does not account for unforeseen developments.
Freelance Writer
