Today, millions of Americans will cast their ballots in various state and local elections across the country. Though these are not as high-profile as the presidential or midterm elections, they still have significant implications for the political landscape heading into 2024 and beyond. Here are some of the key races and issues to watch on this Election Day.
Gubernatorial races
Three states will elect their governors this year: Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia. All three are currently held by Democrats, but only one is expected to remain so.
In Kentucky, incumbent Governor Andy Beshear is facing a tough challenge from Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Beshear, who won by a narrow margin in 2019, has been praised for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, but has also faced backlash from some conservatives for his public health measures. Cameron, on the other hand, has campaigned on a platform of lower taxes, school choice, and defending the state’s coal industry. Polls show a tight race, with Beshear holding a slight edge over Cameron.
In Mississippi, incumbent Governor Tate Reeves is seeking a second term against Democratic challenger Jim Hood, a former attorney general and the only Democrat to hold statewide office in the state since 2008. Reeves, a staunch conservative and Trump ally, has touted his record of cutting taxes, expanding school choice, and banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Hood, a moderate Democrat, has focused on issues such as health care, education, and infrastructure. Polls show Reeves with a comfortable lead over Hood.
In Virginia, former Governor Terry McAuliffe is running for a second non-consecutive term against Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin, who won a surprise victory in the GOP primary earlier this year. McAuliffe, a close ally of President Joe Biden, has campaigned on his previous achievements as governor, such as expanding Medicaid, raising teacher pay, and creating jobs. Youngkin, a former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, has portrayed himself as a political outsider and a successful entrepreneur, who can bring new ideas and solutions to the state. He has also tried to appeal to both Trump supporters and moderate voters, by emphasizing his support for law enforcement, lower taxes, and school choice, while avoiding divisive social issues. Polls show a very close race, with McAuliffe and Youngkin within the margin of error.
The outcomes of these gubernatorial races will have an impact on the 2024 presidential election, as governors play a crucial role in setting the agenda, mobilizing voters, and influencing redistricting in their states. They will also shape the policies and priorities of their states for the next four years, affecting the lives of millions of citizens.
State legislative races
In addition to the gubernatorial races, several states will also elect their state legislators this year. These races are important, as state legislatures have the power to pass laws on a wide range of issues, such as health care, education, voting rights, abortion, gun control, and more. They also have the authority to draw the congressional and state legislative district maps, which can affect the balance of power for the next decade.
Some of the most competitive and consequential state legislative races are in Virginia, where Democrats currently hold a slim majority in both chambers of the General Assembly. After winning the governorship and flipping both houses in 2019, Democrats passed a slew of progressive legislation, such as ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment, raising the minimum wage, legalizing marijuana, expanding voting rights, and abolishing the death penalty. However, they also faced criticism from some Republicans and moderates for being too radical and out of touch with the state’s values. Republicans are hoping to regain control of the legislature by appealing to voters who are dissatisfied with the Democratic agenda, the Biden administration, and the state of the economy. Democrats are hoping to retain their majority by highlighting their accomplishments, mobilizing their base, and linking Republicans to Trump and Youngkin. The outcome of these races will determine whether Virginia will continue its blue shift or revert to its purple past.
Other states that will elect their state legislators this year include New Jersey, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Ohio. In New Jersey, Democrats are expected to maintain their dominance in both chambers of the legislature, while Republicans are hoping to make some gains by capitalizing on the unpopularity of incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is also up for reelection. In Mississippi, Republicans are expected to keep their supermajorities in both chambers, while Democrats are hoping to pick up a few seats by appealing to the state’s large African American population. In Louisiana, Republicans are expected to hold their majorities in both chambers, while Democrats are hoping to break their supermajorities by winning some swing districts. In Ohio, Republicans are expected to keep their control of both chambers, while Democrats are hoping to gain some ground by challenging some vulnerable incumbents and riding the wave of a ballot initiative that would protect abortion rights in the state.
Ballot initiatives
Besides the candidates, voters will also decide on various ballot initiatives that will affect the laws and policies of their states and localities. Ballot initiatives are a form of direct democracy, where citizens can propose and vote on laws or constitutional amendments, without the involvement of the legislature or the governor. Some of the most notable and controversial ballot initiatives this year are:
- Ohio Issue 1: This initiative would amend the state constitution to declare that “nothing in this Constitution secures or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion.” It would also grant the authority to the state legislature to “enact, amend, or repeal statutes regarding abortion, including, but not limited to, circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest or if necessary to save the life of the mother.” This initiative is a response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade and allowed states to ban abortion before viability. Supporters of the initiative argue that it would protect the sanctity of life and the rights of the unborn, while opponents argue that it would violate the rights and health of women and force them to carry unwanted pregnancies.
- New York City Question 1: This initiative would amend the city charter to adopt ranked-choice voting for primary and special elections for mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president, and city council. Ranked-choice voting is a system where voters rank candidates in order of preference, instead of choosing one. If no candidate receives a majority of the first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the next-ranked candidates. This process continues until one candidate has a majority of the remaining votes. Supporters of the initiative argue that it would increase voter participation, reduce negative campaigning, and ensure more diverse and representative outcomes. Opponents of the initiative argue that it would confuse voters, increase the cost and complexity of elections, and favor candidates who are less popular but more acceptable.
- Maine Question 1: This initiative would authorize the state to issue bonds in the amount of $105 million for transportation infrastructure projects, such as highways, bridges, railroads, ports, airports, and trails. The bonds would be matched by an estimated $275 million in federal and other funds. Supporters of the initiative argue that it would create jobs, improve safety, and enhance mobility and connectivity. Opponents of the initiative argue that it would increase the state’s debt, burden taxpayers, and divert funds from other priorities.
These are just some of the many ballot initiatives that voters will face on this Election Day. The results of these initiatives will have a direct impact on the laws and policies of their respective states and localities, as well as a potential ripple effect on other states and the nation as a whole.
Conclusion
The 2023 off-year elections may not be as glamorous or exciting as the presidential or midterm elections, but they are still important and consequential for the future of the country. They will test the strength and popularity of the two major parties, the mood and preferences of the electorate, and the direction and priorities of the nation. They will also set the stage and tone for the 2024 presidential election, which is expected to be one of the most competitive and polarized in recent history. Therefore, every vote counts and every voice matters on this Election Day.
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