The Russian offensive in Ukraine’s Donbas region “has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule,” the British Ministry of Defence said in the latest update posted on Twitter.
“Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule. Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month while sustaining high levels of attrition,” the tweet read.
The agency says Russia has now likely suffered losses of one-third of the ground combat force it committed in February.
These delays will “almost certainly” be exacerbated by the loss of critical enablers such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones.
Russian bridging equipment has been short in supply throughout the conflict, slowing and restricting offensive maneuver. Russian UAVs are believed to be vital for tactical awareness and directing artillery, but have been vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-air capabilities.
“Russian forces are increasingly constrained by degraded enabling capabilities, continued low morale and reduced combat effectiveness,” the report says.
Many of these capabilities cannot be quickly replaced or reconstituted, British intelligence analysts believe and are likely to continue to hinder Russian operations in Ukraine.
“Under the current conditions, Russia is unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days,” the report added.
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