A recent projection from the 338Canada model, updated on October 17, 2024, shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race. Harris is given a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency, while Trump follows closely with a 47 percent chance. The model predicts a median outcome of 270 Electoral College votes for Harris, just enough to secure the victory, compared to 268 for Trump.
Key Battleground States:
• Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): Harris has a 52 percent chance of victory, while Trump trails at 48 percent.
• Michigan (15 electoral votes): The model also gives Harris a slim lead with 51 percent odds, while Trump is close behind with 49 percent.
• Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): This state is shown as a complete toss-up, with both candidates having an equal 50 percent chance of winning.
Solid and Leaning States:
• Harris Strongholds:
• California (54 electoral votes) remains a solid blue state, contributing significantly to Harris’ chances.
• New York (28 electoral votes), Illinois (19 electoral votes), and New Jersey (14 electoral votes) are also projected to strongly favor Harris.
• In addition, states like Oregon (8 electoral votes), Washington (12 electoral votes), and Virginia (13 electoral votes) are likely to go for Harris.
• Trump Strongholds:
• Trump is projected to perform well in several deep-red states such as Texas (40 electoral votes), Florida (30 electoral votes), and Ohio (17 electoral votes).
• Other Republican strongholds include states like Alabama (8 electoral votes), Tennessee (11 electoral votes), and Missouri (10 electoral votes).
Toss-Up States:
• Wisconsin, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), and North Carolina (16 electoral votes) are marked as toss-ups, indicating highly competitive races with no clear favorite.
With razor-thin margins in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the electoral map demonstrates just how close the 2024 election could be. Both Harris and Trump will need to focus on these battlegrounds to tip the balance in their favor.
This model emphasizes the importance of turnout and voter mobilization in determining the eventual winner, with only 2 electoral votes separating the two candidates according to the median projection.
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